MARKET SIGNALS

VIX — Volatility Index

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Measures how much fear is in the market. Above 20 signals stress. Above 30 signals panic.

Source: FRED VIXCLS

Fear & Greed Index

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Combines several indicators into one sentiment score. Below 40 signals fear. Below 20 signals extreme fear.

Source: CNN Markets

Updated manually · as of Jun 2026

CAPE — Shiller P/E

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A 10-year inflation-adjusted P/E — the valuation metric most tied to long-run crash risk. Average is ~17. Above 30 is stretched.

Source: Shiller CAPE

Yield Curve 2Y–10Y

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When short-term rates exceed long-term rates the curve inverts. Every recession since 1970 was preceded by this signal.

Source: FRED T10Y2Y

Buffett Indicator

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Total stock market value divided by GDP. Buffett calls it the best single measure of valuation. Above 140% is a warning.

Source: FRED Wilshire/GDP

10Y Treasury Yield

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Higher yields compete with stocks for investment. When the risk-free rate nears 5%, stocks must offer even higher returns.

Source: FRED DGS10

Fed Funds Rate

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The rate banks charge each other overnight. Above 5% is restrictive — it slows the economy and squeezes borrowers.

Source: FRED FEDFUNDS

Unemployment Rate

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A rising unemployment rate often signals economic slowdown. Above 5% historically precedes recessions.

Source: FRED UNRATE

Put/Call Ratio

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Ratio of bearish puts to bullish calls. Above 1.0 signals fear; below 0.7 signals complacency.

Source: CBOE

Updated manually · as of Jun 2026

Credit Spreads (HY)

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The extra yield investors demand for risky debt. Widening spreads signal stress in corporate credit — a leading crash indicator.

Source: FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2