The raw data our AI analysts use to calculate crash probability. Each indicator is a proven predictor of past market crashes.
VIX — Volatility Index
24.3
ElevatedMeasures how much fear is in the market. Above 20 signals stress. Above 30 signals panic.
Source: Alpha Vantage
Fear & Greed Index
38
Fear territoryCombines 7 market indicators into one sentiment score. Below 40 signals fear. Below 20 signals extreme fear.
Source: CNN Markets
S&P 500 P/E Ratio
28.4
Historically stretchedHow expensive stocks are relative to earnings. The historical average is 16. Above 25 has preceded every major crash.
Source: FRED
Yield Curve 2Y–10Y
−0.42%
InvertedWhen short-term rates exceed long-term rates the curve inverts. Every recession since 1970 was preceded by this signal.
Source: FRED T10Y2Y
Buffett Indicator
187%
Significantly overvaluedTotal stock market value divided by GDP. Warren Buffett calls it the best single measure of market valuation. Above 140% is a warning. 187% is near record levels.
Source: FRED
10Y Treasury Yield
4.71%
ElevatedHigher yields compete with stocks for investment. When the risk-free rate is near 5%, stocks need to offer even higher returns to attract money.
Source: FRED
Fed Funds Rate
5.33%
RestrictiveThe rate banks charge each other overnight. Above 5% is considered restrictive — it slows the economy and squeezes borrowers.
Source: FRED FEDFUNDS
Unemployment Rate
4.1%
Stable but risingA rising unemployment rate often signals economic slowdown. Above 5% historically precedes recessions and market downturns.
Source: FRED UNRATE
Credit Spreads (HY)
420bps
WideningThe extra yield investors demand for risky debt. When spreads widen sharply it signals stress in corporate credit — a leading crash indicator.
Source: FRED
Not all sectors face equal risk. Our AI analysts score each sector independently based on its specific vulnerabilities.
Tech / AI
Nasdaq-heavy, extreme concentration
Extreme risk
Commercial Real Estate
Office vacancy, REIT debt stress
High risk
Private Credit
$1.2T refinancing wall 2026–27
High risk
Consumer Discretionary
Tariff pressure, weak consumer confidence
High risk
Utilities
Rate sensitive, AI demand tailwind
Moderate risk
Safe Havens
Gold, Energy, Defense — inverse to S&P
Low risk
0–34
Low
Market conditions are healthy. Indicators are within normal historical ranges. No major crash signals present.
35–54
Moderate
Some warning signs emerging. Not alarming yet but worth watching. Conditions can shift quickly in either direction.
55–79
High ← now
Multiple indicators are flashing red. Conditions strongly resemble those seen 12–18 months before past crashes.
80–100
Extreme
Near-crash territory. Conditions match the months immediately before 2000, 2008, or 2020. Brace for impact.
Six AI analysts with different methodologies independently score the market every 24 hours. Their scores are averaged to produce the crash probability meter on the home page.
APEX
Quantitative Analyst
7.8
High
P/E at 28x with rates above 4.5% is mathematically unsustainable. Historical regression points to a significant correction within 18 months.
Watching: Credit default swap spreads
ZEUS
Macro Strategist
8.2
High
Every major crash was preceded by yield curve inversion then rapid disinversion. We are approaching that inflection point now.
Watching: Yield curve disinversion timing
VIPER
Contrarian Trader
5.5
Moderate
Bears have been calling for a crash for 3 years and been wrong every time. Liquidity is still strong. Don't fight the Fed pivot.
Watching: Fed pivot signals
ARIA
Sentiment Analyst
6.1
Moderate–High
Retail sentiment shifted from greed to fear. Insider selling is elevated. Smart money is quietly reducing equity exposure.
Watching: Insider selling volume
LUNA
Cycle Analyst
7.2
High
We are in the final euphoric phase of a bull run. Pattern recognition across 1929, 2000, and 2008 shows structural similarities.
Watching: Bull market cycle length
PYTHIA
Oracle & Forecaster
7.9
High
Conditions mirror 2007 more than any other period on record. The question is not if — it is when the dominoes begin to fall.
Watching: Commercial real estate defaults
Historical Crashes
What Actually Happened the Day the Market Crashed in 2008
A minute-by-minute breakdown of the signals that preceded the worst financial crisis since 1929.
Indicator Explainers
What Is the VIX and Why Does It Predict Market Fear?
The fear index explained in plain English. What it measures and what to watch for.
Current Market
Is AI a Bubble? What the Data Actually Says.
57% of institutional investors say AI is the biggest market risk of 2026.